Scenario modeling
Test conviction against the market.
Pick a market, set your subjective probability, and see expected value vs. the consensus price.
Markets

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Consensus: 3.8¢ · Liquidity $2775.4K
Your probability (YES)4%
Stake (USDC)$100
Edge
+0.3pp
Recommend
YES
EV (YES)
+$6.67
EV (NO)
$-0.26
Best play: YES at 3.8¢ → expected value +$6.67
