Test conviction against the market.

Pick a market, set your subjective probability, and see expected value vs. the consensus price.

Markets

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

3.8¢

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.3¢

Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

24.5¢

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance

44.5¢

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.4¢

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.4¢

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

1.7¢

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5

49.5¢

Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

0.4¢

Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?

57.5¢

Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

0.2¢

Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

5.9¢

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

76.5¢

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

1.8¢

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

28.1¢

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

19.4¢

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

99.9¢

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Consensus: 3.8¢ · Liquidity $2775.4K

Your probability (YES)4%

Stake (USDC)$100

Edge

+0.3pp

Recommend

YES

EV (YES)

+$6.67

EV (NO)

$-0.26

Best play: YES at 3.8¢ → expected value +$6.67