Test conviction against the market.

Pick a market, set your subjective probability, and see expected value vs. the consensus price.

Markets

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

3.6¢

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.3¢

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.4¢

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

1.7¢

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

77.5¢

Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

0.3¢

Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

0.2¢

Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

2.5¢

Spread: France (-1.5)

54.5¢

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

3.0¢

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

5.9¢

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.4¢

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

99.9¢

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

28.3¢

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

2.8¢

Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.1¢

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Consensus: 3.6¢ · Liquidity $2705.8K

Your probability (YES)4%

Stake (USDC)$100

Edge

+0.4pp

Recommend

YES

EV (YES)

+$9.59

EV (NO)

$-0.36

Best play: YES at 3.6¢ → expected value +$9.59