Test conviction against the market.

Pick a market, set your subjective probability, and see expected value vs. the consensus price.

Markets

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?

49.5¢

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

1.4¢

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10?

0.1¢

Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10?

0.1¢

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10?

0.1¢

Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10?

0.1¢

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.5¢

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

14.5¢

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

0.1¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

6.9¢

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?

4.4¢

Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10?

11.5¢

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

0.1¢

Knicks vs. 76ers

53.5¢

LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

0.1¢

Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians

60.5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

1.4¢

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschulp

100.0¢

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo

100.0¢

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

31.5¢

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?

Consensus: 49.5¢ · Liquidity $94.2K

Your probability (YES)50%

Stake (USDC)$100

Edge

+0.5pp

Recommend

YES

EV (YES)

+$1.01

EV (NO)

$-0.99

Best play: YES at 49.5¢ → expected value +$1.01