Test conviction against the market.

Pick a market, set your subjective probability, and see expected value vs. the consensus price.

Markets

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0.1¢

Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?

100.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

28.5¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

78.5¢

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

21.5¢

Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

0.1¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

87.5¢

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5

0.1¢

Japan Women's Open: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus

0.1¢

Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?

0.5¢

Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.1¢

Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.1¢

Ningbo Open: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez

79.5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

82.5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

95.5¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

4.5¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

12.5¢

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs

59.5¢

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

3.9¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?

98.0¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Consensus: 0.1¢ · Liquidity $846.1K

Your probability (YES)0%

Stake (USDC)$100

Edge

-0.1pp

Recommend

NO

EV (YES)

$-100.00

EV (NO)

+$0.05

Best play: NO at 100.0¢ → expected value +$0.05