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Event research atlas · Original · EN
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Change refers to the first outcome: Yes. Values are percentage points, not relative percentages.
Original resolution rules
Original · EN
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Resolution source
- No data
- Start date
- 11/5/2025, 5:52:17 PM UTC
- Deadline
- 1/1/2027, 4:59:00 AM UTC
- Best bid
- 17.0%
- Best ask
- 18.0%
- Condition ID
- 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
Price history
Yes · 17.5%
Refreshing…
Scenario calculator
- Outcome
- Yes
- Displayed price
- 17.5%
- Estimated shares
- 57.14
- Estimated payout if outcome wins
- $57.14
Estimates use the displayed price and a $1 payout per winning share. Not a live execution quote or guarantee. Fees, slippage, liquidity and resolution rules affect results. No order is sent.
Open market on PolymarketMarket price is a participant estimate, not A3 AI confidence. Prices are displayed independently without normalization to 100%; rounding and market quotes may produce different totals.
Price changes alone do not explain their cause. No verified news sources or publication times are attached here, so A3 does not attribute current moves to news.