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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027$74.63M total volume $565.8K liquidity
YES probability
15.5%
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
Polymarket / UMA
Start date
Nov 5, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
Best bid
15.0%
Best ask
16.0%
Condition ID
0x5db999fa…
Trade
SideYES
Avg price15.5%
Shares64.52
Potential payout$64.52
Self-custodial · Settlement on Polymarket (Polygon)